02 Feb Recent and historical market updates from PWA

Hence the Fed needed to only make small changes to the cash rate as the inflation rate traded around 2%. Post the Covid lockdown, the stimulus put into the consumer’s hands rapidly increased PCE inflation, which peaked at c.5.50% in mid-2022. PCE headline inflation has now dropped to 4.71% and is forecast to drop further as Covid price pressures abate. As shown, PCE inflation has a long way to fall before the US Fed feels comfortable the inflation outbreak is under control.

New Zealand is officially in recession

This supports share markets at current levels and could well push share markets higher in 2021. We have seen share markets around the world dip on the back of the rise in longer dated interest rates. The world share markets continue to defy gravity and test new highs.

One thing we can be reasonably sure of is that financial markets will continue to be volatile as investors position for either rapidly rising interest rates, or lower growth and lower interest rates for longer. The next move to control inflation pressures will be the raising of the cash rate. As discussed above, New Zealand is forecast to commence raising cash rates as soon as October. If these inflation pressures do prove to be less transitory than most economists forecast, then we may see interest rates in the US rise faster than expected. To date, the US Federal Reserve has started public discussions around how and when they might start to exit their most recent fiscal Best casino sites New Zealand and monetary programmes. We can expect interest rates to push a bit higher in the US as they start their tapering.

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We already have one of the requirements mentioned above for Stagflation with persistently high inflation. Concerning the other two measures, unemployment remains at record low levels in the developed world, and according to Fitch’s latest forecasts, global GDP growth will be 3.5% and will slow to 2.8% in 2023. The U.S. bond market is now forecasting this tightening cycle (increasing interest rates) to be one of the most rapid tightening periods in the last 25 years. This aggressive future pricing or rate hikes does leave some room for the Fed to indicate a slower than forecast increasing cycle.

A volatile start to the year

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